Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
