A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
